Is now the time for AR/VR or is this just another false start?

We’ve leveraged three technological shifts in the last 30 years for record productivity gains and wealth creation.

The internet connected us all in the 1990s. The mobile phone (and tablets) placed that connectivity in the palm of our hands. Cloud computing has made data cheap and readily accessible.

All three of these combined create enormous shifts in how we work. Now, we’re pondering two more shifts that could accelerate progress even more.

AI creates new opportunities with data and fundamental computer-to-human interactions. The possibilities seem endless.

And the Apple Vision Pro promises to eventually change how we interact with almost every physical asset imaginable. Fulfilling that promise has massive implications for the future of skilled labor.

We’ve been here before. AR/VR is a paradigm shift many have championed for several years, but it has never entirely lived up to the hype.

Yes, it seems to be the perfect tool to train labor in a market where it’s in short supply. It also could be the ultimate training tool without risking worker safety. The airline and space industries have used simulation for years for this purpose.

Practicality rules purchasing decisions in industrial tech. Cool tools may grab attention, but pragmatic ones get the budget. That’s where AR has failed to date.

The ubiquitous use of the tablet unlocked growth for Procore. Drone and camera technology made companies like DroneDeploy possible. AR doesn’t yet have that company and may never do so.

Oculus represents the best argument against AR not penetrating the industrial world. It was released in 2019, has a robust developer ecosystem, and is cost-effective. Yet, it’s remained mostly a novelty despite extensive investment from Meta, which was so extensive that activist investors called for a pullback.

The case for Apple as the winner is their proven ability to significantly improve products after the first version. While we love them now, the first iPhone and Apple Watch versions were mediocre. The pace of improvement, however, has been rapid.

I really want to believe the Vision Pro is the platform on which labor will train and work for the next decade, but we’ve had false starts here before. If anyone has a chance to create the next big shift, it’s Apple.

What do you think? Will the Vision Pro unlock AR/VR adoption, or will it remain just a cool toy? Are you building something in this space?

I’d love to hear from you if so.