True or False: 8 Bets for the Future
November 6, 2018
Like many, I listen to podcasts on my commute to and from work. Yesterday, I came across this podcast from Greentech Media featuring Shayle Kann, SVP of Research and Strategy at Energy Impact Partners. Shayle had written an article about the future of energy and tied it to the life events of his colleague's soon-to-be daughter which is due at the end of the year.The podcast and article are worth your time - and not just for those interested in the future of energy. Given that we just had a newborn, I thought it would be fun to duplicate the exercise using my son Ian and my thoughts on the "bets" Shayle puts forward.
Bet #1: Ian will control machines with his voice more than with his keyboard. My answer: False*My answer comes with a caveat, what's the timeline? In the podcast, Shayle discusses the growth in AI-enabled voice assistants over the last 3 years. While the number of devices being sold is impressive, voice still has a real user-engagement problem. These devices are primarily used for timers, audio, weather, and news. I also think voice has a UX issue that most aren't talking about, it's hard to remember what all a device can do (your phone has apps you see every day and do not use). Until voice-enabled devices do almost everything, I think the path to engagement will remain tough.Bet #2: Ian will never personally drive a car. My answer: FalseWhile there are several converging technologies and business model innovations in the automobile space, I believe purely out of curiosity Ian will drive a car at some point in his life. AV's, ride-sharing, and scooters are all disrupting the way we think about transportation, but pure curiosity gets the best of all of us.Bet #3: By the time Ian buys his first home, especially if he’s in an urban environment, his surroundings will be transformed. My answer: TrueA few of the major trends already impacting cities: WeWork, AirBnB, and EV's. Up next: drones (robotics), repurposed parking lots, and vertical farming.Bet #4: By the time Ian shops for his own groceries, >20% of his produce will be grown indoors, up from virtually none today. My answer: TrueGiven the current population growth, the impact farming has on climate change, and vice versa this is a given. We'll need more food and the way we grow it today isn't sustainable for the three major reasons listed. We need more food, it impacts our climate to grow it, and our climate is changing the way we will have to grow it.Bet #5: Let’s turn to Ian's house. I bet that in Ian's first home of his own, more than half of his electricity load will dynamically respond to grid or price signals. My answer: TrueI loved Shayle's answer here because it was concise and spot on. Control HVAC plus 1 or 2 additional devices and this goal is achieved. It must happen in the background, consumers don't know nor care what the impact could be.Bet #6: By the time Ian reaches 30 (in the year 2048), electricity’s market share of final energy consumption will more than double. My answer: TrueAnother fairly simple answer, EV's should change the demand significantly especially if they hit long-haul trucking in the near future. The industrial applications of storage and efficiency should also play a large role in increasing electricity's market-share.Bet #7: More than 50% of Ian's electricity, as represented by the national breakdown, will come from renewables by the time he's a sophomore in high school. My answer: FalseIt will be close, but I say we fall just short of this goal primarily due to the availability of natural gas.Bet #8: Ian will live over 200 years, and for most of his life, electricity will be his only food. My answer: FalseSo many ethical questions here, though companies are working on products that allow them to download your loved ones' text (email, text messaging, social media) then build bots that mimic the physical manifestation of them. Kann makes a compelling case by listing the major inventions of the last 85 years, but the regulatory and ethical hurdles might defeat this one.There you have it, my take Ian's future as it pertains to energy and innovation. Thank you Shayle for writing this piece, it was a neat way to think about the future and possibly gives Ian something to look back on while having a laugh at his old man's expense.